Adams and the World of Financial Economics

Windows 7

2009-12-23T12:57:00.003+09:00

Microsoft launched a latest version of Windows, the Windows 7, on October 22, 2009.

Here are some hints to upgrade your PC to Windows 7:

1. Download and run the Windows 7 Upgrade Advisor to see if your PC is ready for Windows 7.

2. Two key words:

Upgrade: files and applications are maintained on the computer and do not need to be reinstalled. Available for some computers running Windows Vista only.

Migration: clean installation, files and settings must be transferred to a safe location prior to installing. After the installation is complete, move the files and settings back and then reinstall.

3. Windows Easy Transfer:

Open Windows Easy Transfer by clicking the Start button.
Type Easy Transfer in the search box, and then click Windows Easy Transfer.
Follow the instructions, then it is done.

4. Upgrading to Windows 7: Follow the instructions from the links below:

Visit Installing Windows: Recommended Links, for more information.

Source: Microsoft/Windows/Windows 7.

Microsoft Office 2010

2009-12-10T18:19:00.002+09:00

Microsoft Office Professional 2010 Beta, 32-bit :

Microsoft Office 2010 products offer the greatest compatibility with existing software and all versions of Microsoft Windows (including 64-bit versions).

If you have Office XP, Office 2003, or Office 2007 you will be able to perform an in-place upgrade to Office 2010 with a 32-bit version of your product.

Existing Office add-ins are most likely to be compatible with a 32-bit installation of Office 2010.

Improvements in Office 2010 allow each 32-bit Office program to access 2GB of memory.

Microsoft Office 2010

Visit Microsoft Homepage to experience the latest version of Microsoft Office.

Why not give Microsoft office 2010 a chance!?

Adams

P.S. The Beta Version (trial version) will expire in October 2010. For more information, check Frequently Asked Questions from Microsoft Homepage.

Enrique Iglesias feat. Ciara

2009-12-03T14:44:00.004+09:00

Lonely Night !??

2009-11-09T02:22:00.017+09:00

This is something touching for you. Check it out !!

"Being alone in a quiet room, listening to the sound of the rain.... makes me feel lonely. Sadness is.... beautiful, however loneliness.... is tragic. Being lonely is painful, nobody wanna be.

Looking back at the past, something came up to my mind. It was about somebody and.... that somebody is.... someone I never thought it would be.... it is.... it`s YOU.

What I`m trying to say is, I.... I`m inconsolable and.... I miss you, miss you so much. I just wonder why!? Oh, why can`t I be there where you are ????"

Wow, will this work!? No, maybe not.. Hope you enjoyed it, though !!

P.S. Adams is a member of G4 and the G of G4 also stands for Girl-hunter. Please visit G4MeDiA for more information.

G4MeDiA

2009-10-08T22:54:00.002+09:00

Global Financial Crisis

2009-02-16T18:08:00.019+09:00

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I would like to present you "Global Financial Crisis: The Economy Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better". This is a sequel to the previous one, "Subprime Crisis", I presented last December at Khmer Seminar.

The purpose of this presentation is three-fold:

To illustrate global financial crisis and its impact on real economy;
To investigate different approaches to the crisis; and
To show the needs of establishment of Phnom Penh Stock Exchange (PPSE).

Get access to both presentation slides at:

Global Financial Crisis: The Economy Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better
Subprime Crisis: Why It Happened And What To Do About It (Prequel to Global Financial Crisis)

Selected sources for global financial crisis:

ADB, Dec. 2008, ADB Economics: Working Paper Series No. 139, page 42-71
ADB, Jan. 2009, Global Financial Crisis and Proposed ADB Response
Bernanke, B.S. Dec. 2008, Federal Reserve Policies in the Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve Board
Blanchard, O. Jan. 2009, More aggressive and concerted actions are now needed, IMF
IMF, IMF and Financial Crisis
IMF, Jan. 2009, World Economic Outlook Update
Keat, C. Oct. 2008, Keynote Address: Initial Public Offering Conference
Ming, B. 0ct. 2008, Cambodia and Securities Market Development, SECC
SECC, Securities and Exchange Commission of Cambodia
World Bank, World Bank and Financial Crisis
Zoellick, R. B. Jan. 2009, A Stimulus Package for the World, New York Times
Zoellick, R. B. , Jan. 2009, Time to herald the Age of Responsibility, Financial Times

Selected sources for subprime crisis: The Subprime Meltdown: A Primer, Why Did the Crisis Happen?, and other sources.

The economy will get worse before it gets better, it is absolutely true. However, past cannot be changed, fortunately future can be changed. As long as we are together, we can break the mold, make a difference. Therefore, we must define, not be defined by, the global financial crisis.

Sincerely Yours,

Kimsa SON

Friendship !!

2009-01-18T16:55:00.017+09:00

Either "actions speak louder than words" or the WACADAD principle "words are cheap and deeds are dear" works well for people. Unfortunately, it is just... it cannot be applied at all circumstances. Sometimes, WORD is the only one more additional input to be invested to keep the margin and to be successful.

AsmiK

"The man who... has performed a generous action, when he looks forward to those whom he has served, feels himself to be the natural object of their love and gratitude, and by sympathy with them.... And when he looks backward to the motive from which he acted... he still continues to enter into it, and applauds himself by sympathy with the approbation of this supposed impartial judge."

Adam Smith

"Friendship... is a kind of virtue, or implies virtue, and it is also most necessary for living. Nobody would choose to live without friends even if he had all the other good things.... There are, however, not a few divergent views about friendship. Some hold that it is a matter of similarity: that our friends are those who are like ourselves..."

Aristotle

"Friendship is a distinctively personal relationship that is grounded in a concern on the part of each friend for the welfare of the other, and that involves some degree of intimacy. As such, friendship is undoubtedly central to our lives, in part because the special concern we have for our friends must have a place within a broader set of concerns, including moral concerns, and in part because our friends can help shape who we are as persons."

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

(The song "True Friend" is recommended by Wert)

Happy New Year !!

2009-01-01T16:55:00.014+09:00

Everybody,

Happy New Year to all of you. May sucess, happiness, prosperity, and wisdom be always with you ... and with me as well.

May love and peace be granted to all men and women.

Happy New Year !!!

Best wishes,

Adam SMIK

世界金融危機

2008-12-27T17:17:00.004+09:00

2008年は間もなく幕を閉じる。残念ながら、世界金融危機(global financial crisis)は中々そうはせずに発展し続けていく見通し。金融危機は実体経済に波及し、日米欧だけではなく、世界は同時に不況に突入。

１年前に想像もつかなかった大混乱が政界の金融市場を襲っている。アメリカの住宅バブル崩壊(collapse of housing bubble)に端を発した危機は「100年に1度」（グリーンスパン前米連邦準備制度理事会議長）と呼ばれ、恐慌守前に発展。投資銀行(investment bank)業務で高収益を上げていた5社のうち3社が破綻・身売りで姿を消した。

「リーマン・ブラザーズに公的資金を投入する計画はない」。ポールソン財務長官の言葉に居並んだ米金融業界首脳は顔色を失った。創業150年の証券大手リーマンは9月15日に破綻した。

直前まで「リーマンは救済される」という意見が市場の見方だった。FRBは、3月には経営困難に直撃している米大手証券ベア・スタンズに緊急融資、JPモルガンチェーズへの身売りで決着させた。9月7日には米政府系住宅金融2社（ファニーメイ・フレッディマック）への公的資金投入も決めていた。

米証券大手メリルリンチは米銀行大手バンク・オブ・アメリカへの身売りに走りなど、金融市場はパニックに陥った。混乱を見てFRBは方針を転換、9月16日には米保険最大大手AIGを救済した。だが、リーマンを破綻させたことで、危機は欧州に飛び火。アイスランドやハンガリーが相次いで国際通貨基金(IMF)に支援を呼んだ。

ブッシュ米大統領は総額7000億ドルの公的資金で金融機関の不良資産を買い取る金融安定化法案を提出したが、下院は9月末にこれを否決、市場の動揺を加速した。その結果、米株価は4年ぶりに1万ドルを割り、一時は7000ドル台に値下がった。また日経平均株価は26年ぶりに7000円を落ち込んだ。その他の国々も同様に金融危機のせいで悪影響に襲われた。

市場に迫られる形で10月の先進7カ国財務相・中央銀行総裁会議（G7)は金融機関への資本注入で合意。11月には新興国も含めた主要20カ国・地域（G20)の世界金融サミット(world summit)が開催された。金融市場への規制強化を明記する首脳宣言をまとめ、米国流の市場原理主義の転換迫られることを印象付けた。

中央銀行は利下げに乗り出して、FRBは史上初の事実上ゼロ金利(0~0.25%)と量的緩和政策(monetary easing)を導入。

日銀も10月末、約7年7か月ぶりに利下げ、12月には政策金利を0.3％から0.1％まで引き下げた。だが、市場は依然不安定で、金融機関の損失拡大が続く。ドル売り円買いも根強く、円相場は12月に一時、13年ぶりの1ドル＝87円台に直撃。

スペシャリストによれば、世界金融危機は来年度の第2半期までも続くという。一方、2010年度までには世界経済が回復できないという見通しも強まった。

(参考文献：毎日新聞、金融危機、平成２０年１２月２３日）

Merry Christmas !!

2008-12-24T12:24:00.037+09:00

Santa: What do you want for Christmas?

Adams: Love and peace for people.

Santa: What about for yourself?
Adams: Yeah, I never forget myself,.... It is just,... when people live with love and peace, I strongly believe, I will be granted love and care as a reward.

Santa: What are the most valuable gifts you can receive?
Adams: Love, Care, and trust from family, friends, and people around me.

Santa: What was the last gift you received?
Adams: Love, Care and Support. They love me, care about what I do and how I do it. Moreover, I can feel it in my bone, they have always believed in me. I am either strongly motivated by them or driven by desires/ambitions to achieve the only one thing people longing for, that is the SUCCESS.

Cyber Santa

Dear Santa, I hope you`re not set in your ways
`Cause things are just different in these modern days.

Dear Santa, please tell me that I would be right
To figure you`ve set up your North Pole Web Site.

Do some of your elves keep the pages just right,
While you are preparing for your famous flight?
With all of the news of presents we`ll get,
Can we find it all there at Santa.net?

Do you accept e-mail, and phone faxes too?
Just think of the trees that you`ll save if you do.
And does a computer help guide your old sleigh,
To make sure that Rodalph does not lose his way?

Please tell me, dear Santa, that these things are true;
The times might be changing, but not without you.
Dear Santa, I have to say just one thing more,
Our fireplace is fake, so please come through the door!

The Other Santas

There are many Santa Clauses
Of every shape and size.
That`s not the name they go by;
That should be no surprise.

There are many Santa Clauses
Whose gifts are love and care,
Who treat each day like Christmas
For those whose lives they share.

There are many Santa Clauses;
You need not look too far.
Please stop and think about them;
You know just who they are.

(Sources: Alexandru, Joseph and others)

My favorite songs ....... for YOU !!

2008-12-19T17:07:00.025+09:00

One day, ....... one day, ....... is so long for me ....... without you. Miss you so much, I wish you understand my ....... feeling.

I am ....... strong but without you within me ....... I cannot find no rest ........ All I am going to be is ....... INCOMPLETE. Honey ......., you know it, if you let go of me, I ....... I will be ....... INCONSOLABLE.

Baby, come on, my baby ......., what do you say!?

Hey, do you think it works?
....... Not so sure .............

Okay, then try another one !!

Baby, I know you are hurting ........ and right now you feel like you would never love me again. I am not asking you to forgive me, but all I ask is for a CHANCE, ....... a chance to prove that I love you.

I should ....... have told you that I love you, the time you asked me. Honey, right now, I realized that you are the only one girl that I cannot live without. I love you so much ....... and will always do. You are always beautiful in my heart.

Constructive Criticism!? .......Arguments?

2008-12-17T17:57:00.022+09:00

The global financial crisis resembles a conflict among family members. I do not like it, you do not like it, and nobody likes it, I can say. Exactly, amid that critical situation, what people have to do is to remedy the dispute. However, there are many possible resolutions, among which they must single out the one most beneficial to every party based on rationality, optimization theory. I use “happy-happy-happy principle”; both parties and the third party who intervenes are all satisfied with the solution.

Nonetheless, the only one thing, I mean at least to bear in mind is that leaders are obliged to love everybody indiscriminately. Let`s just imagine about a small dispute between children. If the parents blame one child, and do everything to help the others, what that be effective? As a result, the relationship between them would worsen due to the strategy the parents apply. Actually, they are brothers and sisters, and happiness, success, prosperity can be achieved when they love, help each other. The stronger the relationship among family member is, the better the status of that family in the society.

Okay, let`s come to the global financial crisis that ruptures to every edge of global economy. I agree to take action now, as soon as possible to restore the economic growth and reverse the global economic downturn. World leaders and the market players have to do everything necessary to fix the financial turmoil. Plans, projects must be designed based on the real situation, the rationality and the expectation out of what people are dealing with. Meantime, the most critical variable that policy makers could not fail to do is “how to do it to successfully remedy the problem and to achieve the optimal result”.

President-elect Obama promised, on Saturday, a massive public works project to resuscitate both the reeling U.S. economy and global economy. The plan, he argued, with billions of dollars of government expenditure, millions of jobs will be created and the unemployment problem will either solved. I do not say it is a bad policy; indeed, I just am not convinced that it is the best move that the United States should do now. Leaders have to do the right thing at the right time, and for the right reason. Let me convince you, by raising some criticisms or resistances of specialists and my own argument to deal with the must-be-solved the so-called global financial crisis.

The GDP (global domestic product) is, by one approach, defined by the formula GDP=C+I+G+Im-Ex, where C: consumption, I: investment, G: government expenditure, Im: import and Ex: export. From the equation, when government expenditure, G increases, then the GDP would not decrease further amid the crisis and even move upward. But the critical question is where to get the money to spend? Taxpayers` money, government budget, or borrow hundreds of billions of dollars from world financial institutions or other countries. What will happen next?

President George W. Bush and other republicans have resisted such an approach in part out of concern for the already soaring federal budget deficit, which could hit $1 trillion at the end of 2008. Why? Because of scarcity, people cannot afford to have everything they wish for. This world is a place fulfilled with opportunity cost and trade-off. To be successful, like Karl Marx used to argue that “people live with animal spirit”, they will do everything to grab what they want, to maximize their profit. Profit maximization is pure, ideal and constructive, the concept itself, but the problem is how they are applied and whether it is the right thing to do. Right here, the main point is that “It is easy to spend money, however, is it the best of the best ways to spend lies beyond that.”

Moreover, Konosuke Matsushita, founder of National which present day known as Panasonic, is prominent and well-known for his business principles.

1. Collective wisdom or bottom up management

2. Companies are driven by each employee

3. The margin between success and failure is very slight

This business model is applicable for policy makers in the economic world as well. First, the good interaction between the players is desirable. Second, companies represent the whole economy, and employees are market participants. So all players, either CEOs or employees, are not to be discriminated. And lower-class, middle-class and upper-class people must be treated fairly, indiscriminately, to maximize the social welfare in the whole economy. Third, the slightest difference in effort translates into a major difference in achievement. Right now, what world leaders, CEOs, people desire the most is the shiny day after the very long night of crisis.

My main point is that, government intervention into the economy is recommended. However, the plan proposed by Obama to make a massive investment in public works project is not the best solution to deal with unemployment and the global credit crunch. His policy is the right one; unfortunately, it is just not the right time to do so. He focuses too much on the middle-class American people. For instance, “Help for homeowners (subprime mortgage-backed holders and borrowers) facing foreclosure is a top priority for me,” he said less than 6 weeks before he takes office in Jan. 20, 2009.

“The economy is going to get worse before it gets better,” Obama said twice in the early moments of the interview on NBC television`s “Meet the Press”. However, he sidestepped a question about when he plans to raise taxes on wealthy Americans. “The key for us is making sure that we jump-start that economy in a way that doesn`t just deal with short term, doesn`t just create job immediately, but also puts us on a glide path for long-term, sustainable economic growth,” Obama added.

On the other hand, conservative economists have also long derided public works spending as a poor response to tough economic periods, saying it has not been a reliable catalyst for the short-term growth and instead is more about politicians gaining points with constituents. Barack Obama defeated John McCain, beyond that existed many variables. One is his policy focused on middle-class American, everybody knows the percentage of those American are higher than the percentages of people of other classes. Moreover, he is a smart politician, he always choose the right person to work with him, like veteran Democrats Joe Biden to be Vice-president, and Hillary Rodham Clinton as his secretary of state when he is inaugurated next January.

Meanwhile, Alan Viard, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, addressed congress recently that “public works spending should not be authorized out of the illusory hope of jobs gains or economic stabilization.” “If more money is spent on infrastructure, more people will be employed in that sector,” he told the House Ways and Means Committee. “In the long-run, however, an increase in infrastructure spending requires a reduction in public or private spending for other goods and services. As a result, fewer workers are employed in other sectors of the economy.” Alan elaborated.

Obama implicitly argued that by invoking the federal interstate highway program, widely seen as one of the most successful public works efforts in American history, introduced by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950s, International Herald Tribune reported. Besides, people learn from different economists, leaders, but it is not to do the same thing like what those people did in the past, it is to create something new and to innovate the even better model or policy for the interests of all people. One can argue against Obama that the creation of federal interstate system did work during President Dwight Eisenhower but now it is different, people live in a totally different new world.

A substantial part of the proposed economic package will go toward creating so-called green jobs, those that benefit the environment or save energy. The blueprint for such spending, can be found in a study, financed by the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts and Center for American Progress, a Washington Research Organization (founded by John Podesta, a co-chairman of Obama`s transition team.)

The study, released in November after months of work, found that a $100 billion investment in clean energy could create 2 million jobs over 2 years. Nonetheless, Daniel Weiss, an environmental analysts at Podesta`s center, argued that the government should start by providing fresh money to the deteriorating auto industry, preserving hundreds of thousands of jobs, on the condition that they commit to cleaner and more fuel-efficient cars, like plug-in hybrids.

Meantime, some concerns about unemployment and inflation have been raised and policy on how to deal with the crisis is also proposed. Global economy is in recession, unemployment is on the rise, and from day to day, more people are losing their jobs. Consumers lose confidence in the markets, investors` incentives slump due to declining sales and profits. Putting much effort in public works project requires a reduction in spending in other sectors of economy. Why Obama wait to create million of jobs in the future, without preserving hundreds of thousands of job being shed every month. It would be better if he afford to help the auto industry or financial sectors to be able to survive during this critical situation. Then the unemployment rates would not increase too high to create jobs in the future.

The Bush Administration has so far taken a largely ad-hoc approach to deal with credit crunch -- addressing problems instead of trying to get ahead of them. However, many market watchers say that is not going to be enough to cool down the current troubles, especially when asset prices drop and financial institution run into capital shortage. Whereas, Obama is likely to focus too much in the future, he assumed that millions of jobs will lose and his plan is to create jobs for those people. He expects that in the future, global economy will recover and now it is so difficult to keep the unemployment rate constant, some scholars can criticized him. Then, when is the future? For how long will the U.S. economy return to stabilization? He could not give the answer, I believe.

Another concern is Inflation. Just before the subprime crisis burst, before the crisis caused ruptures worldwide in terms of financial failures and credit crunch, the money supply and money demand was at an equilibrium point in the financial markets. Where did the money go then? Why there is a shortage of money supply in credit markets? Indeed, investment in subprime mortgage market, a great deal of capitals is converted to real estate assets. However, people do not consume, they lost confidence. Investors do not risk investing amid the financial crisis. To keep it simple, money is like the blood flowing in the body, when the cash does not flow smoothly, people are not healthy. The same thing for financial markets, cash flow was not operated very well. People just keep money at home, some of them even not deposit because they lost trust in banks.

In order to help restore the economy to health, world leaders, central bankers, policy makers injected billions of dollars into the markets to deal with shortage of capital of financial institutions and to provide those who have high demand of money to operate or pay debts when they face foreclosure or bankruptcy. Furthermore, short-term interest rates are nipped to the lowest level of the benchmark short-term interest rates, a major change of monetary policy. Now, indeed, it is not a problem yet, however, when the economy recovers to its original condition, some issues might happen. When people think that the crisis is over, they start to consume again, throw the money into the credit markets, and businessmen begin to invest to make profits because they face a lot of budget deficit during the crisis. Excess money supply would lead to a hyper-inflation (my projection).

Unemployment and inflation do not work well when they are together. There is a negative correlation between the two, that is, when one increases the other move in an opposite direction. Obama`s single largest investment is to create jobs for people, to reduce unemployment rate (right now 6.7% and is anticipated to grow) in the United States (The trade-off between unemployment and inflation is well explained by Phillip`s Curve). Then, the inflation would become visible just after the economy returns back to recovery.

The prophecy of “at the end of one crisis, it is the beginning of another” will be fulfilled if the right policy is not in place, at the end of global financial crisis. However, since the financial crisis is inevitable, people must accept the truth. They have to take advantage from the crisis, somehow, it can be an opportunity for mankind to learn about and innovate new strategies on how to protect the upheaval of the crisis in the future. People get stronger, they grow up after the crisis/obstacle or problem is solved successfully, rationally, and logically.

Single Largest Public Works Project !!

2008-12-16T18:26:00.018+09:00

When the economy is in recession, policy-makers tend to design different plan as a remedy. One of those is to increase government expenditure, then the GDP (GDP=C+I+G+Ex-Im) would not decline or even increase. It is recommended to do so, but the even more critical points, HOW? How to do it? Is it the best move?, are always the most difficult questions to answer.

Adams

CHICAGO: President-elect Barack Obama has promised the largest public works construction program since President Dwight D. Eisenhower created the federal interstate system half-century ago. The program is to lift the United States out of economic recession, and to resuscitate the reeling global economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dec. 5) reported U.S. loses 533,000 in November, the biggest drop since 1974. As days pass by, the unemployment is on the rise and there is no end to the recession in sight.

Obama began highlighting on Saturday elements of the economic recovery program he is trying to fashion with congressional leaders in hopes of being able to enact it shortly after coming to office on January 20, 2009.

“This painful crisis is an opportunity to improve the lives of ordinary people by rebuilding roads and modernizing schools for our children, and by investing in clean energy projects.” Barack Obama said in a statement right after the latest grim economic report indicating job losses in the U.S. in November.

Obama`s remarks sought to improve the definition of traditional work programs for the middle class, like infrastructure projects to repair road and bridges, at the same time also pushing a federal effort to bring in new-era jobs in technology and so called green-technology related jobs.

Although Obama offered no price estimate for his grand plan, he said the massive government spending program he proposed will invest record amounts of money in the vast infrastructure project, which also includes work on schools, sewer systems, mass transit, electric grids, dams and other public utilities.

Simultaneously, he vowed to upgrade computers in schools, expand high-speed Internet to remote areas, make government buildings more energy-efficient and modernize health care institutions by improving information technology at hospital and doctors` offices.

“We need action – and action now,” Obama said in an address taped for broadcast on radio and You Tube. Millions of jobs would be created by making the single largest investment in national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s, he said. He added that state officials would lose the federal dollars if they did not use the money to repair highways and bridges quickly.

Obama and his team are working with congressional leaders to devise a spending package that some lawmakers have proposed could total $400 billion to $700 billion. Some analysts projected even higher costs to achieve the massive plan. The efforts to adopt a broad economic package are likely to wait until he swears in (takes office) and Democrats have bigger majorities in Congress.

“We won`t just throw money at the problems, we`ll measure progress by the reforms we make and the results we achieve – by the jobs we create, by the energy we save, by whether America is more competitive in the world.” Barack Obama addressed the public.

Last week, when he met with the nation`s governors, they said the states had $136 billion worth of road, bridge and other projects ready to proceed as soon as money became available. They estimated that each $1 billion dollars spent would create 40,000 jobs, if the plans are implemented smoothly.

“He hasn`t given us any commitment, but we are fairly certain it`s going to be large,” Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania, chairman of the National Governors Association, said in an interview on Saturday. “I think he understands if you`re trying to reverse the economy and turn it around.... This is not the time to do it in small doses. It`s got to be big.” Edward added.

In a joint statement, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said it would help the U.S. stay ahead of other countries. “To stay competitive globally, the time to repair and modernize our nation`s infrastructure is now,” they said.

The delay to implement the project poses the possibility of a deeper recession, some experts recommended a quick action to make the plan happens.

(Sources: AP, Obama banking on large-scale public works project, Dec. 7, The Japan Times, Obama offers huge public works plan, and International Herald Tribune, Obama recovery plan: Massive public projects, Dec. 8, 2008.)

Accelerating Unemployment !!

2008-12-14T23:36:00.003+09:00

When crisis happens, consumers start to use the “wait-and-see approach”. They do not spend money on goods and services then the companies face declining sales. In order to keep their margins, they tend to reduce scale of production, reduce operating costs, etc. to survive. One of those is to reduce expenses on labor force, so CEOs start to lay-off employees.

Who are the employees? They are “Consumers”. But why consumers lose confidence in market performance? The answer is, maybe policy taken by government can not lead to financial stability. Then the question is “Why can it not be achieved?” One of the right answers is “consumers and producers do not smoothly interact with each other.”

So, who is (are) the wrongdoer(s)? My answer is “ALL OF THEM”.

Adams

The author wishes to inform that President-elect Obama`s public works project will be introduced later. Then he is going to raise some arguments by specialists and his own ones against those plans to deal with the global financial crisis in the up-coming posts.

Nobody desires or satisfies with the financial crisis that ruptures worldwide and spread to virtually every corner of the whole economy. But world leaders just set the right policy at the wrong time, they just could not remedy it with minimum possible negative effects on the economy, as a result of what they are doing and will do in the near future.

From day to day, the crisis escalates to the next level, and job losses are spreading far beyond the housing and finance sectors to every edge of the global economy. Companies are now shedding workers at an accelerating rate, some in response to declining sales and others in anticipation of tougher time ahead.

The government`s report of a giant job losses in November, the biggest monthly decline in a generation. The nation`s employers cut 533,000 jobs in November, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported Friday (December 5).

“We are caught in a downward spiral in which employment, income and spending are collapsing together,” said Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist for IHS Global Insight. “With private spending frozen, we have no choice but to rely on a stimulus package to revive the economy.” he commented on what to do about the crisis.

The Business Roundtable, which represents 160 big U.S. companies said Thursday that 60% of CEOs in a recent survey expect to lay-off employees in coming months, increased from only 1/3 projected job losses. “As economic conditions continue to soften, so have our member CEO`s near-term expectations for sales, capital spending and employment,” Harold McGraw III, Business Roundtable Chairman and also chief executive of McGraw-Hill Cos told reporters.

The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, up six-tenths over the last three months. More than 420,000 people who had been working or seeking in October left the labor force in November. More significantly, if those too discouraged to apply for a job any longer or those working fewer hours than they would like is included, the rate hit a record 12.5 percent in November.

As part of Friday`s announcement, the government revised higher her estimates of jobs lost in September and October. Instead of 524,000 workers were cut in those months, 723,000 jobs were lost, or total of 1.2 million people in just three months became unemployed. Noting that 1.9 million jobs have been slashed since the start of the recession a year ago – two-thirds of them since September.

Steve Gross, a global practice leader at consulting firm Mercer LLC, says some executives are eliminating jobs “as a preventive measure” in anticipation of a long recession. “If you knew you were going to need the workers in 6 months, you would never lay them off,” he says. “But they probably do not need these workers for 12 months or longer…. Companies want to make sure that they can keep their margins.” Steve added.

(Sources: Wall Street Journal, Job Losses Accelerate in U.S. by Amol Sharma, Sudeep Reddy and Cari Tuna. And The New York Times, U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974 by Louis Uchitelle, Edmund L. Andrews and Stephen Labaton, December 5, 2008.)

Only a SEED that wanna sprout and grow up !!

2008-12-13T13:20:00.023+09:00

"Everybody, thank you, from the bottom of my heart, that you paid attention to my presentation, challenged me, and criticized me (for development) . I really have learned a lot from yesterday session. I say SUCCESS, it is a ROSE, and I am just a SEED. You are the SUN, the WATER, the EARTH, the EVERYTHING that let me grow up. The FLOWER will bloom in the near future and its beauty will last forever for mankind as a whole."

Adams

The author would like to convey his message to his brothers, sisters, friends and all men/women who spend their precious time to visit this blog. Meantime, he wishes to elaborate on his argument (constructive criticism) in the up-coming posts.

The PowerPoint Presentations (PDF files) are now available and can be downloaded from the links below (Box.net):

For your information: KimsA = AsmiK, and AsmiK is known to the world as Adams.

Should you have any suggestions, questions or wish to check the answers of the "Quick quizzes", you can either post as comment or contact Adams directly. From 'ABOUT ME', click 'VIEW MY COMPLETE PROFILE' on the top right of this page. Then the next page shows up, you can find 'EMAIL' on the top left-hand side.

G20 Crisis Summit

2008-12-11T15:30:00.008+09:00

News Reviews (November 16)

World Leaders and Global Financial Crisis
WASHINGTON: World leaders at a 2-day financial crisis summit in Washington have agreed on an action plan to restore global growth and prevent future financial upheaval. They have designed many action plans to deal with the credit crunch worldwide and to reverse the global economic downturn.

"There is no logic to making any political and economic decisions without the G20 members, developing countries must be part of the solution to the global financial crisis," Lula, a participant of G20 summit said. Ones can conclude that, right now the emerging economies are playing an important role to go on a journey to achieve an even better place for all mankind.

The G20 (85% of global economy) issued a final statement after one of the biggest international economic gatherings in years. The statement pledged responses on a number of fronts, with another meeting scheduled for April, 2009 to flesh out policy.

"We are determined to enhance our cooperation and work together to restore global growth and achieve needed reforms in the world`s financial systems," the G20 said Saturday (Nov. 15), after the crisis summit in Washington.

One of those plans is government spending, which is to be used to reverse immediate economic downturn. Meanwhile, a global trade deal is to be promoted to guard against protectionism, simply mean the world is right now a flat one and there is no border in trade worldwide. The third one is to achieve a better environment for financial economics. Financial regulation and world financial institutions are to be reformed.

"We should reform the international financial institutions. Again, these institution have been very important -- the World Bank, IMF -- but they were based on an economic order of 1944," Bush told a press conference. Meantime, Gordon Brown said "it is absolutely clear that we are trying to build new institutions for the future." Moreover, Taro Aso of Japan voiced support for a dollar-centered currency system, despite growing concern about the troubled global financial mechanism.

Further, the G20 called for fiscal stimulus measures, by the tax cuts or government spending, to take "rapid effect," and urged more interest rate cuts. The G20 though could bolster efforts in the U.S. Congress to push through a second economic stimulus plan (the first one is $700 billion bail-out plan), which is opposed by Bush and backed by his successor, Obama. Britain, right now is heading fast into recession, may unveil tax cuts this month.

However, there are some points that could not be achieved. World`s press was less than impressed with those outcome of the summit, expressing cynicism about what could come-by in the face of the global financial meltdown.

The final communique was also significant in what it did not included. There was no mention of the creation of a global financial market enforcer as demanded by some European and emerging economies that was opposed by the United States. Either, there was no reference to coordinated stimulus packages from government, an idea promoted by Britain.

Meanwhile, Obama instead sent former secretary of state Madeleine Albright and ex-Republican lawmaker Jim Leach to meet with members of visiting delegations on his behalf. He was criticized by public of being not so active, even though he is just a president-elect of the United States but his voice or suggestion will be listened, some analysts commented.

President Gorge W. Bush, who bid an emphatic "goodbye" at the end of his press conference, said he had told fellow leaders that America would enjoy a "seamless" transition to Obama`s new team.

(Sources: World leaders urge fast action on financial crisis, by David Lawder and Emmanuel Jarry 'Reuters', and World leaders agree action plan at crisis summit by Adam Plowright 'AFP', November 16, 2008)

Bank Risk Models

2008-12-09T17:05:00.009+09:00

Q: Why bank risk models failed?
A: ....... Blame the models!?
....................................................
....................................................
.......Hell Yeah, Ya Right !!!

Why bank risk models failed by Avinash Persuad
This article calls for an ambitious departure from trends in modern financial regulations to correct the problem caused by subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The main purpose is to deal with the failure of bank risk models implemented by financial institutions, banks and other financial intermediaries.

Lehman Brothers, with a long and famous legendary in contribution to U.S. economy for 150 years, filed bankruptcy in mid-September. The effects of falling down are so huge that it was well-known worldwide immediately, which economists, investors, academics called it as "Lehman Shock".

Greenspan (former Fed Chairman) and others raised question why risk models failed to avoid or mitigate the current financial meltdown.

Avanish Persaud of Intelligence Capital granted 2 answers, one technical and the other philosophical. He argued that "market-sensitive risk models" used by main players in the financial markets did work smoothly as it should be. The models assume that each user is the only person using them. Investors have the same data on the risk, returns and correlation of financial instruments and they use standard optimization models.

Profit-maximization theory discourages them to invest in un-favoured market. As a result, when risk models detect a rise in risking their portfolio (rise in volatility), they try to do the same thing at the same time with the same assets for the same purpose. Therefore, a vicious cycle ensues as a vertical fall in prices, prompting in more and more selling (sell it at a low price before the price get lower approach). Then excess supply leads to a further depreciation in prices.

Avinash has also raised one concern (to achieve effective risk models) about the paradox of the observation of areas of safety in risk models and the observation of risk. To keep it simple, paradoxically, the observation of areas of safety in risk models creates risks, and the observation of risk creates safety.

In the conclusion of the paper, Avinash Persaud granted some suggestions in terms of solution on market-sensitive risk models. He argued that, if people rely on market prices in risk models and in value accounting, they should do so on the understanding amid rowdy times central banks are to be buyers and sellers of the last resort of distressed assets to avoid systemic collapse. The asymmetry of being the only a buyer not a seller of last resort during during the unsustainable boom will only condemn them to cycles of instability.

Regulating ambition should be set now, while the fear of the current crisis is fresh and not when the crisis is over and the seat-belts are working again, Avinash recommended.

Blame the models by Jon Danielsson

What is in a rating?

Dealing with the same question, Jon Danielsson suggested that understanding the paradox of "Quality of Ratings" helps understand both how the crisis happened and the frequently inappropriate response to it. He argued that the core of the crisis is the quality of ratings generated by sophisticated statistical models. It was the incorrect risk assessment provided by rating agencies, who underestimated the default correlation in mortgages (assumption of independent events of mortgage default).

Jon acknowledged that the rating agencies have an 80-year history of evaluating corporate obligations, which does provide a benchmark to assess the rating quality. Unfortunately, the rating quality of securities differs from those of other regular corporations, he confirmed.

Foolish sophistication

Financial modelling changes the statistical laws governing the financial system. The reason is that market participants react to measurement and therefore change the underlying statistical processes. By the way, modellers are always playing catch-up with each others, which becomes pronounced when the system gets into a crisis. Jon Danielsson criticized that the endogenous risk (inside-model risk) of interaction between institutions in determining market outcomes works only when everything is under control/calm. In crisis it does not and that is when the models fail, he added.

Demanding numbers

There are increasing demands from supervisors for exactly the calculation of such numbers as a response to the crisis, right now. Indeed, the underlying motivation is worthwhile trying to quantify financial stability and systemic risk. However, exploitation of bank s` internal models for this purpose is not an appropriate way to do.

Conclusion

Of course, the current crisis took everybody by surprise in spite of all the sophisticated models are in place, all the stress and all the numbers. Jon Danielsson optimistically thinks that the primary lesson from the crisis is that the financial institutions that had a good handle on liquidity risk management came out best. Indeed the problem created by the conduits cannot be solved by models, but the problem could have been prevented by better management and especially by better regulations.

One of the most important lessons from the crisis has been the exposure of the unreliability of models and the importance of management. However to understand the products being traded in the markets and have an idea of the magnitude, risk, coupled with a willingness to act when necessary, supervisors and the central banks need even more sophisticated models with effective management and better regulations in place, Jon Danielsson elaborated.

In the subprime crisis, the key problem lies with the bank supervision and central banking, as well as with the banks themselves.

(Sources: Why bank risk models failed by Avinash Persaud, page 11~12 and Blame the models by Jon Danielsson, page 13~15 of Section 1: Why Did the Crisis Happened)

Lehman Shock

2008-12-07T15:16:00.019+09:00

Wall Street Journal News Review (Sept. 16, 2008)

My brother, 'WHY?' Did I do some thing wrong? I just could not understand why you let me fall down, disappear to a place in the middle of nowhere. For 150 years, I have always been working hard, trying to be a good guy to make mom and dad happy and grant people around me hopes.

It is okay for me, but it is just not right, unfair, for my people. They are under my wings, not yet strong enough to be on their own. I just want you to know, I will never forgive myself, and YOU for what happened and is going to happen to them.

My message, for my people, my friends, even it is a heart wrenching, I have to say the only last word from me, "GOOD BYE, Live with Undying Optimism."

The author would like to dedicate his quotation to all men/women who are facing similar critical situation. Life will go on!!

AIG, Lehman Shock Hits World Markets
The convulsions in the U.S. financial system sent a surprising influences to the economy across the globe. Two Wall Street`s biggest firms looked set to exit the main stage and AIG (American International Group Inc.) turned to the Federal Reserve and New York for mercy.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., in filing for Chapter 11 protection for its holding company, as opposed to filing for Chapter 7 liquidation (putting the entire company into bankruptcy proceedings -- gives itself more time and control of what happens to its various assets).

The inevitable fact of Lehman, with approximately 25,000 employees (10,000 to 12,000 of whom work in New York), lead to the feelings, ranged from sadness to anger. At 7:30 am, as many employees were already at their desks, Jerry Donin, head of global equities, "I am sorry it came down to this,...but please don`t let this define you." told the hundreds of people packed onto the trading floor. Meanwhile, feelings of sorrow was not difficult to find, for instance, "It`s just a shame it came down to this," said Lehman Stock analyst Roger Freeman.

After the 9\11 terrorist attack, the U.S. stock market suffered a worst daily point plunge in history. Financial markets were rattle by the immediate sales of Merrill Lynch & Co., Sunday, and the bankruptcy-court filing of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which on Monday afforded to sell its most-prized businesses.

In stock markets, from Sydney to London and New York, the news caused many drastic, unpredictable selling of stocks. As a result, the major U.S. market indexes were down by 2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 504.48 points, off 4.4% to its daily low of 10917.51, down 18% on the year. Besides, London`s FTSE 100 index dropped 3.9%, by Tuesday, Tokyo shares were down 5.1% and Hong Kong`s Hang Seng Index further fell 6.1%.

Banks are increasingly hoarding cash, they also starting to dump assets to raise capital. A mass sales of assets by the likes AIG and Lehman Bros. could flood the market, reduce their value, and leading to additional losses of financial institutions. Meantime, worried investors (with animal spirit) are abandoning huge amount of stocks, from regional banks to big conglomerates. Instead, they flooded back into the safety of Treasury bonds, sending yields on government debt to their lowest levels since April.

By the way, many economists, analysts, even the public have criticized the policy makers (Bush Administration as well as the Congress) on the problem of Lehman Bros. bankruptcy. They argued that Washington stepped in to help Bear Sterns Cos., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but why it opted not to let Lehman survive.

Instead of saving Lehman, Fed officials designed a plan to try to save the broader market, after their study of new liquidity facilities carefully for month. One purpose was to improve these facilities more like the repurchase repos (investment banks get much of their short-term financing) markets themselves. In repo markets, broadening the kinds of collateral they would take from Wall Street firms coming to them for cash is required, anyway.

The Bush Administration has so far taken a largely ad-hoc approach to deal with credit crunch -- addressing problems instead of trying to get ahead of them. However, many market watchers say that is not going to be enough to cool down the current troubles, especially when asset prices drop and financial institution run into capital shortage.

Lehman shock has drawn global attention to the subprime-mortgage crisis. It is just the beginning of critical situation that mankind have to face as a reward to, what everybody eager for, that is profit, and the way they look at each other with fear, grief and suspicion when trouble comes. Why they do not trust each other, take action together, to just build up mutual understanding and trust among living being of the same kind, their only one kind, the kind of human.

(Source: WSJ, Sept. 16, AIG, Lehman Shock Hits World Markets, by Susanne Craig, Jeffrey McCracken, John Hilsenrath and Deborah Solomon)

Deteriorating Auto Industry

2008-12-06T15:14:00.009+09:00

Japan Times News Reviews (Dec. 6, 2008)

I. Honda to Exit F1 by the End of Year

"The sun goes down, everybody is gone, and now you are all alone with a few friends in the middle of nowhere. There is no way to contact friends, family, or ask somebody for help. And now you are in a critical situation, where somebody or something is hunting you down, one by one." Then what should you do to survive?

For me, "First stand still altogether and find ways to fight back not just to protect ourselves is the best strategy, I am so sure it works, somehow."

Adams

Honda (entered F1 in 1964, originally strong at motor bike) said Friday it will withdraw from the Formula 1 (F1), making 2008 the last season in F1 motor racing. The main cause is due to rapidly deteriorated amid the global economic downturn.

"Japan`s 2nd largest auto maker can no longer bear large operating costs for F1, $50 billion per year, Honda needs to spare more resources to develop environmentally friendly cars and other new technology." Honda`s President Takeo Fukui told reporters. "Moreover, Honda and its shareholders have no plans to come back to Formula 1 in the future." Takeo Fukui added.

Industry watchers warn that Honda`s move indicates the fallout from global credit crunch has begun to ripple over into sporting businesses, and may possibly spread to other non-core operation such as cultural activities. Honda`s exit highlights just how awful the situation surrounding the auto industry is, said Koji Endo (analyst). Other team may follow, and Formula 1 may not be held in the future.

On the other hand, Toyota, which entered the F1 business in 2002 and is also struggling with tough business situations, denied speculation on that it may follow suit and exit F1.

In October, Honda slashed its sales outlook for the business ending next March to $11.6 from $12.13 trillion it projected this July. One primary cause is that vehicle sales in the U.S., the most profitable market for Honda, plunged 32% in November, the most since 1981.

II. Senators Push Bankruptcy Plan for the Big Three:

"A guy was dying, and he asked a doctor for help", he could live no longer than 25mn by himself. Surprisingly, "What kind of man you wanna be and how do you live your life?. Tell me in the next 5mn" the doctor ordered him. The available time decreased to 15 mn, and the guy tried to explained logically, rationally, in some ways, somehow.

The next hearing, "You can control my life, to some extent, when I decide to do something, your voice would be prioritized" poor guy responded. The doctor said "Let`s me think,...by the way, I don`t think you can survive". Time is too short to talk with the one who does not know how it hurts or how a person feel when he is dying, one can conclude.

Now what do you think about this short story?
My opinion, "That is B.S. " (not Bachelor of Science, anyway). If you wanna know what B.S. stands for, read the following article.

Adams

Washington: Desperate U.S. carmakers ran into a fresh obstacles from skeptical lawmakers (skepticism about the bailout appeared to be as stronger as ever) as they appealed with rising urgency - a new dose of humidity - for a $34 billion auto-industry bailout. "Without help, we`re looking at a death sentence." said Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Banking Committee. "We`re not going t leave town (Detroit) without trying to help." Chris Dodd optimistically told the executives of the Big Three.

With lawmakers in both parties pressing the automakers to consider a pre-negotiated bankruptcy - something they have consistently shunned - the B3 were mulling a government-run restructuring that could yield result similar to bankruptcy, including massive downsizing, in return for bailout.

Moreover, Congressional officials said Thursday that one leading proposal-to tap an approved fund set aside for making cars environmentally efficient - would not give the carmakers as much money as they say they need. "In all due respect, I don`t think there`s faith that the next...3 months will work out, given the past history," said Democrat Sen.Charles E. Schummer. Along-with, "No thinking person thinks that all 3 companies can survive," Republic Sen. Bob Coker (Tennessee) told the Congress.

However, House Speaker Majority Leader Harry Reid wrote to George W. Bush on Thursday asking him to use the $700 billion bailout fund to rescue the auto makers - something the administration has consistently refused to do so. They argued that such a course was justified because of potential grave harm to financial sector when one carmaker collapses.

Under legislation enacted in October creating the financial rescue program, Congress can vote to block the Treasury Department from accessing the 2nd $350 billion, although 2/3 supermajority of the congress is needed to do so over a presidential veto. " No matter how important the autos are to our economy, we don not want to put good money after bad. In other words, we want to make sure that the plan they (B3) develop is one that ensures their long-term viability for the sake of the taxpayer," Bush told NBC.

President-elect Barack Obama was keeping his distance, prompting Rep. Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who has been dealing with both the financial bailout and the auto rescue program to say "Obama is going to have to be more assertive that he has been."

Repentant after a botched first crack at bailout pleas, the executive from General Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC all agreed (during the session) that a multibillion-dollar bailout deal would include a supervisory government board as well. The board could order major overhauls of the companies if deemed necessary for survival.

B.S. is "BULL SHIT"

(Source: Japan Times, December 6, 2008)

Why Did Bank Supervision Fail?

2008-12-05T13:31:00.011+09:00

The Global Financial Crisis, made in the United States which economists, analysts cannot foresee how deep the economic downturn will be and how long it will last, have become the hottest issue of debates worldwide.

A large number of reports on "what went wrong and what to do about it?" are spurred to every edge of the world along with the ongoing financial turmoil (credit crunch). Moreover, how to avoid future relapses are being included in those debates as well.

A particular comprehensive and lucid analysis of the primary causes is introduced in the "Interim Report of the Financial Stability Forum" presented by Italian Central Banker Mario Draghi at the G7 (Group of Seven) meeting in Tokyo. Mario Draghi`s report draws attention to 3 specific problems:

Firms` risk management practices: exposure to liquidity and market risk;
Poor due diligence practices (low level of credit-ratings agencies reliance);
Imperfect disclosure of on and off-balance sheet items.

Italian Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi argued that the question on "why did bank supervision fail?" should be taken into consideration.

First, to keep up with the rapid pace of financial innovation, even sophisticated investors, systemic implications of financial arrangements were not poorly understood. Then, sophisticated investors were fooled into a collective overestimating the resilience of world credit markets, he responded to the key question.

Second, systematic incentives distortion such as the moral hazard of 'originate and distribute' business model, conflict of interest of credit-ratings agencies, and management compensation schemes plus risk-taking behaviour of banks, financial intermediaries and even the investor side are key elements, Mario Draghi pointed out.

Guido Tabellini, Bocconi University and CEPR, one of the supporters of Mario Draghi, in addition to the report, criticized supervisory institutes for poor management, poor judgment and slow adaption to the drastic pace of financial innovation.

He argued, on one hand, that bank regulators and supervisors were just too slow to adjust their priorities and practices to new dangers: lack of liquidity and market risk. Excessive confidence in self-regulating abilities of modern financial institutions and an ideological conviction that over-regulation should be avoided as well, Guido Tabellini added.

On the other hand, the distorted incentives can be an appropriate answer to the key question. Both Bureaucratic organizations and financial institutions have the same response to financial innovation, that is, to put simply, regulatory competition.

Imposing sound risk management procedure raises costs. Tabellini explained that the lax supervisory standards and practices reflected the concern of domestic and foreign-based competitor. It should hurt domestic firms some ways, somehow, and some institution would shift their business to regulatory heavens.

All in all, the bank supervision failed due to, first, poor judgment of sophisticated investors as well as bank supervisors. Second, distorted incentives of bureaucratic organization and financial institutions.

Relating to the latter, one also needs to worry about whether national supervisors acting unilaterally will have the resolve and incentives to take effective actions. If their incentives were too weak just before the subprime crisis, they will remain weak once this crisis is gone, Guido Tabellini recommended.

(Source: Why did bank supervision fail? by Guido Tabellini, an article of Section 1: Why Did the Crisis Happen?, page 45~47)

Let`s hear what Alan Greenspan wanna say !!

2008-12-03T16:16:00.028+09:00

"It would be more beneficial and intersting if Alan Greenspan gave some feedbacks, responding to the Congress, in order to cool down the result of subprime outburst in U.S. which now the whole world is paying the price."

Adams

Wall Street Journal News Review (Oct. 24, 2008)

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve Chairman, a prominent 18-year central banker, had fallen from the day when he was hailed for his contribution to the U.S. economy, as well as global economy as a whole.

Before the subprime crisis happened, low inflation and steady economic growth were achieved even American economy have been so far hit by dot-com bubble burst (2000-01) and the 9/11 terrorist attack. Moreover, for his stewardship in helping pull the world through financial crises, including the Asian Financial Crisis, Time Magazine called him part of the "committee to save the world."

Greenspan, on Thursday Oct. 23, conceded under harsh questioning form law makers that he made mistakes during his long tenure as the Fed chief that may have worsened the current economy downturn. In a four-hour appearance before the House Oversight Committee, Greenspan encountered legislators who interrupted his answer and tried to make him to admit that, at least in some ways, the present crisis would probably have never happened without his monetary policy of keeping short-term low-interest rates of 1%.

The former Fed chairman declared his "shocked disbelief" that financial institutions had failed to protect themselves from risks tied to subprime-mortgage related securities. At the hearing, "You had the authority to prevent irresponsible lending practices that led to the subprime crisis. You were advised to do so by many others. And now our whole economy is paying its price," said Rep. Henry Waxman, chairman of the House Committee. Sometimes, legislators caustically read back Greenspan`s own words from many years ago as evidence to prove that his predictions and policies had been wrong.

To response to Rep. Henry Waxman and the Congress, Greenspan said that "I was often following the will of Congress and did what I was supposed to do, not what I would like to do." Indeed, 35 years ago, Greenspan said that he never anticipated home prices could fall so much, and did not forecast a significant decline because significant depreciation in home values had never happened so far.

His confidence in the resilience of home prices shared by many investors at the time, but ultimately became a critical forecasting error. The belief encouraged more mortgage underwriting because lenders assumed that borrowers could always refinance or sell their homes for a profit if they ran into trouble. But 2.5 years after Greenspan left office, Congress was drawing plans to remake global financial regulation with the kind of tight government hand that he long opposed.

Then, early 2006 the Fed and financial intermediaries raised interest rates to deal with the mortgage-loan bubble (2004-05) in America. Some economists argued that it was an additional ingredient that caused financial instability and led to the current subprime crisis. On the other hand, Greenspan has spent much of this year trying to show his decisions were far less significant than external forces in causing the crisis. He firmly argued that a global saving glut was responsible for low interest rates worldwide, not just in the U.S. that contribute to a housing boom.

Logically and interestingly, his answer was that "We were wrong quite a good deal of time. Forecasting never gets to the point where it is 100% accurate. If the best experts were not able to foresee the development, I think we have to ask ourselves, 'why is that?'" Greenspan added. "And the answer is that we are not smart enough as people. We just cannot see events that far in advance." He stressed.

The treatment was striking contrast with Greenspan`s appearance before Congress as the Federal Reserve Chairman on November 3, 2005. At that time, "You have guided monetary policy through stock-market crashes, wars, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters," Rep. Jim Saxton, Republican of New Jersey, told him. Then he added "You have made a great contribution to the prosperity of the U.S. and nation is in your debt."

(Source: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 24, Greenspan Admits Errors To Hostile House Panel by Kara Scannell and Sudeep Reedy)

Greenspan`s Legacy

2008-12-02T16:55:00.015+09:00

"When trouble comes or crisis happens, people start to think who is the wrongdoer rather than why it happens and what to do about it. It is the nature of mankind, indeed, but not all men and women are like that, at least I know for sure, I am not one of them."

Adams

It is difficult to predict about what is going to happen in the future, inevitably, because of uncertainty, likewise how long the Global Financial Crisis will last. The U.S. subprime crisis became worldwide and lead to a recall of the previous crises, like the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis and further, date back to the Great Depression in 1929.

The present crisis bears little resemblance to that of the 1929, fortunately according to Ben Bernanke`s analysis about Great Depression: Ben Bernanke (1983), "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression", the crisis that time was unleashed by a collapse of production and consumption, amplified by a drastic reduction in credit supply (the Fed failed to act as lender of last resort). Nonetheless, the only one aspect that no one can neglect (about the similarity) is that its epicentre is the United States.

The credit market froze, the global economy is in a downturn spiral and no one guarantees that the remedies for the crisis, which is being taken right now, is working to reverse the movement effectively or just to protect the economy from getting worse. Amid the crisis, it is useful to disentangle the causes of the crisis. According to a paper written by Tito Boeri and Luigi Guiso, August 23, 2007, there are 3 factors that contribute to the outburst of subprime mortgage crisis worldwide.

First, low financial literacy is one factor. Only 66.66% of Americans know the law of compound interest, this problem happens not only in financially backward countries but also in the U.S., and merely 50% of them are familiar with the effects of inflation on the costs of indebtedness. Because of low financial literacy of people, banks and intermediaries have advised their clients to invest in financial assets ill-suited to their ability to bear risk, they exploited those American financial illiteracy.

Second, the financial innovation during the last 10 years and the securitization that it produced. Indeed, the advantage is that by making an illiquid credit liquid, the efficiency gain; longer-term positions and higher return for investors is achieved. However, those innovation and securitization weaken the incentives of banks and financial intermediaries to monitor the behaviour of the original borrower or to screen them carefully.

The last factor is, according to Tito Boeri and Luigi Guiso, the legacy of the "central banker of the century, Alan Greenspan". In response to the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the post 9/11 recession, the monetary policy of low interest rates was introduced by Greenspan. The short-term interest rates was set at 1% and was maintained in the next few years at levels significantly below equilibrium.

The interest rates of 1%, lowest level in 50 years, resulted in low returns on traditional investments and pushed investors, lenders, and financial intermediaries to take bigger risks to get better returns (reallocation of portfolios towards more lucrative but riskier assets). Simultaneously, mortgage loan increased, house prices appreciated, ultimately encouraging the additional extension of credit; the home value of real estate seemed almost guaranteed.

The financial instability comes along with the short-term movement of interest rates. If the interest rates have been unusually low for a long time, and then return even just to its normal levels , the critical moment that the bankers or policymakers have to consider happens. To put it simply, wide and fast variations from low to high interest rates have a minus impact on financial stability.

Some economists, analysts, scholars, and students who study economics argued that without Greenspan`s monetary policy, the present crisis probably would have never occurred. To me, they are maybe right, but maybe wrong, because this kind crisis happens once in a century, the future is invisible for mankind. Nobody knows what is going to happen, uncertainty makes life a meaningful one, nevertheless.

(Source: The subprime crisis: Greenspan`s legacy by Tito Boeri and Luigi Guiso, an article of Section 1: Why Did the Crisis Happen ?, page 37~39)

A New Life In Cambodia

2008-12-01T20:45:00.021+09:00

Today, I came across an article "Californian finds new life in Cambodia" (International Herald Tribune, December 1, 2008) and found that it is an interesting one with inspired meaning.

At that time, I became thinking that in the future what can I do for my beloved country? You know what, when I was reading at the central library, Nagoya University, my tear came down from my eyes, maybe I am a little bit sentimental, when I tried to think and imagine about what has been written in that article.

Adams

International Herald Tribune News Review

Phnom Penh: The former gang member, Tuy Sobil, 30, known as K.K., has taken Cambodia street children (with the funny names, Frog, Homey,...etc.) under his wing as he teaches them the art he brought with him, breaking dance, as well as his hard lessons in life. K.K. is one of the 189 Cambodian refugees who have been banished from the U.S., from the past 6 years, under a law that mandates deportations for non-citizens who commit felonies.

Actually, he was an infant when he arrived; he was born in a refugee camp in Thailand, 1978, and then his family fled to America from Khmer Rouge "killing fields". He, who found a haven in America in 1980, is not an illegal alien, he is a non-citizen only by technicality of paperwork. It was due to K.K.`s parents, like so many other refugees, were unsophisticated farmers who failed to complete the citizenship process when they arrived.

Like some other children of poor immigrants, he drifted to the streets, where he joined a group of gangster, fortunately he could become a champion break dancer. It was not until being arrested for armed robbery, when he was 18, (you should ask yourself why?, I know the answer, I guess.), that he realized that he was not a citizen.

Like many deportees, he arrived in Cambodia without home, without family contacts, with nothing. With the support from international aid, for instance Bridges Across Border which based in Florida, he expanded the "Tiny Toones Cambodia", a break dancing club he founded , into a small school where street children can learn Khmer, English and computers in addition to back flips and head stands.

"Some were doing well initially but now over time have become unemployment or never get employed, and just get discouraged," said Dimple Rana, who works with Deported Diaspora (based in Massachusetts), that helps deportees to adjust.

"I think it was meant for me to be here, even though I lost my family. And my kid is there, Kayshawn. He`s 8. Right now, you know, these kids are my family....I adopted one, a street kid; his mom and dad are on drugs." K.K. said. Children leaping and spinning here on a hard linoleum floor are from poor and low education families, like thousands of Cambodian children who fill the slums and back streets of Phnom Penh, begging and digging through garbage to find food, he added.

K.K., whose childhood was not so different, says he teaches them to find pride in who they are. "I try to tell them not to judge people by the way they looked, I still have a struggle here in Cambodia. People see me with tattoos and think I`m a bad guy." he insisted.

His journey between identities reached a point of strangeness when he was invited to perform with his students at a last Christmas party at the U.S. Embassy in Cambodia, which he was warmly welcomed by the ambassador. "You are right that there is a certain wonderful irony to him being rejected or at least ejected from the U.S. and still standing on his feet - or shoulders and head - dancing,....K.K. is/was an American in everything except in law and he has shown this by his creativity, tenacity, and undying optimism." the ambassador at the time, Joseph Mussomeli said in an e-mail message.

Now another wonderful irony is in store for K.K. , his club have been invited so many times to perform in America. Thanks to K.K., Cambodian street-children, who do not speak English and have never been abroad, never been outside Cambodia, could have a chance to see the outside world, get to know how big the world is and begin to have a dream in their future.

"I can`t go, I can understand that they deported me here, I`d like to go visit - only visit, because I live here now, I have a brand new life." K.K. (Tuy Sobil) said, as his boys and girls jumped and bounced around him like tiny spins.

(Source: International Herald Tribune, November 30, 2008, Californian finds new life in Cambodia by Seth Mydans)

What kind of person you are?

2008-11-30T14:50:00.023+09:00

"I am who I am is because of you. You shape me up and let me pursue my dream." (I mean the environment and society we live in have a great deal of influence on our characteristics.)

Adam Smik

"What kind of man I am does not depend on what lies underneath, It is what I do that defines me."

Bruce Wayne/Bat-man

Aries, born March 21~April 19

Mythology:
The sign Aries is symbolized by the Ram, element is Fire, ruled by planet Mars. You are quick, daring, self-assertive, and full of spunk. Seldom defeated because defeat is not recognized. You are intelligent, energetic, active, impatient, and have a lot of initiative. You are also proud, ambitious, useful, have a strong desire to achieve through force, and have leadership qualities.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be hasty, inconsiderate, brash, destructive, and domineering. You will say things without thinking, can be arrogant, presumptuous, and your own interests will come first.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is hot and intense. Like a blowtorch, you heat up rapidly and like a firecracker, you explode in a blaze of fire and sparks. You love the unorthodox and the unusual in sexual encounters and you are not afraid to go after what you want. Ruled by Mars, the god of warriors, you are straightforward and uncomplicated in the pursuit of your desires.

Taurus, born April 20~May 20

Mythology:
The sign Taurus is symbolized by the Bull, element is Earth, ruled by planet Venus. You are practical, peace loving, stubborn, slow, and deliberate. You have a natural interest in money, and likes the finer things in life. You will walk away from an argument. You are tenacious, artistic, musical, and has a "feeling" for things. You are also emotional, determined, stable, and persistent. You love beauty and harmony, and like to prove your worth.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be lazy, angry, stubborn, selfish, and unreasonable. You have love of sensuous pleasure, and are fond of good doing.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is strong and deep, though not necessarily electric on the surface. Sensual, but conservative, you prefer a cosy courtship, replete with good food and wine in copious quantities. Ruled by Venus, the goddess of beauty and desire, you are strikingly attractive, in a somewhat statuesque way. Your sensuality and readiness to please make you a desirable partner for one who seeks a solid, secure and long-lasting relationship.

Gemini, born May 21~June 20

Mythology:
The sign Gemini is symbolized by the Twins, element is Air, ruled by planet Mercury. You want to know everything but never dig quite deep enough, usually just skimming the surface. You are a jack of all trades, are highly adaptable and likes change and variety. You are restless, and very clever with the uses of your hands, versatile, fickle, intelligent, creative, quick, neat and curious. You learn quickly and have the ability to get a good education.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be selfish, nervous, inconsistent, deceptive, changeable, and confused. You have a a weak will-power, and you tend to scatter your forces.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is, well, shall we say, fickle? Let's face it, you do blow hot and cold (sometimes even at the same time, a feat not easily appreciable by the non-Geminis...). You love adventure and intrigue and will take all manner of risks in the runaround involved with your urgent desire to avoid boredom. Ruled by Mercury, the god (among other things) of tricksters and thieves, you are far from straightforward and uncomplicated in the pursuit of your desires.

Cancer, born June 21~July 22

Mythology:
The sign Cancer is symbolized by the Crab, element is Water, ruled by the Moon. You are emotional, intuitive, sympathetic and moody. You are sentimental, sensitive, and need to have a sense of security. You may be interested in politics even if it is only on the local level. You tend to over protect what is yours. You are also intensely romantic and has a vivid imagination. Your home and family are very important to you.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be cruel, grasping, weak, possessive, domineering, timid, lazy and tend toward brooding and cynicism.

Sexuality:
Your vein of sexuality runs deep, but follows a path strewn with obstacles (often of your own making). You are profoundly emotional and deeply sensitive, so you build a hard shell around your heart to protect it from the slings and arrows of fortune, especially those flung by those less sensitive who do not understand how wounding their ostensibly trivial actions can be. Ruled by the Moon, you tend to flow with the tides and are very reflective of your environment.

Leo, born July 23~August 22

Mythology:
The sign Leo is symbolized by the Lion, element is Fire, ruled by the Sun. You are highly dramatic and like to be center-stage. You are poised and confident, loyal, sincere, and make a good organizer. You are proud and dignified, enthusiastic, and ambitious. You also like luxury and pleasure and are willing to pay the price for it. You are also colorful, self-assured, out-going, impulsive, expensive, authoritative and affectionate. You expect praise and you give praise.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be jealous, arrogant, vain, self-centered, and a s show-off demanding attention. You are flashy, domineering, and snobbish, and have feelings of superiority over others.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is powerful. The solar fire of the Sun rules your nature, so your whole personality is dynamic and attractive to others. There is no shortage of those who long to bask in your solar warmth! You do prefer to be the centre of attention in any situation and the bedroom mazurka is no different. You are open to any manner of sexual interaction that clearly demonstrates your own desirability and rightful place at the centre of things.

Virgo, born August 23~September 22

Mythology:
The sign is symbolized by the Virgin, element is Earth, ruled by planet Mercury. You enjoy helping others and being of service. You are shy, and prefer working behind the scenes. You are highly discriminating and a bit puritanical. You are intellectual, critical, fussy, shrewed, logical, methodical, practical, and have teaching ability. You also can lack confidence and need constant reassurance.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be highly critical, cynical, sarcastic, unforgiving, nervous, self-centered, and ridden by fear. You may have a tendency to be unfaithful as well.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is delicate and fastidious. The way to your heart is through your head. While you can intellectually assent to any number of unusual or unorthodox views and positions on any number of subjects, in practice you are pretty conservative and hard-headed when it comes to relationships, particularly when sex is involved. You can easily become cynical.

Libra, born September 23~October 23

Mythology:
The sign Libra is symbolized by the balanced Scales, element is Air, ruled by planet Venus. You are naturally refined and neat. You have a strong sense of good taste and a desire for peace. You are very fair and just and try to maintain a proper balance. You are artistic, musical, level headed, sympathetic, perceptive and generous. Manners and other niceties are important to you, and you have a strong need to share with others.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be gossipy, critical, and bitter. You like to pry into other people affairs, and can be very moody at times.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is responsive, yet very much subject to the nature of the environment. A natural partner, your need to relate makes you eager to please, but can see you often looking for someone more satisfactory somewhere else. Ruled by Venus, the goddess of beauty and of lovers, you have impeccable taste and are widely considered attractive, yet you can be coquettish and even devious in the pursuit of your desires. You can be somewhat narcissistic at times and respond readily to praise and flattery.

Scorpio, born October 24~November 22

Mythology:
The sign Scorpio is symbolized by the Scorpion, element is Water, ruled by planet Pluto. You are very intense, strong willed, determined and secretive. Nothing escapes your attention. You can let attentions build to the exploding point. Investigation and research play a big part in your life. You are a deep thinker with a fine mind. You love a good fight, and then wonder why the other person is angry. You are forceful and courageous, and are usually interested in anything that has to do with the occult.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be willful, vindictive, jealous, sullen, bitter and sarcastic. You can have temper and may misuse sex.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is deep, all-consuming and intense. You seek transformation through the sexual experience, which you never undertake lightly. Ruled by Mars, the god of primitive action and Pluto the lord of the underworld, you mix primal passion with a profound need to uncover the mysteries of life and death, including and especially sexual ones. Your emotions run deep and your faculty of intuition is remarkably accurate, so your antennae can prick up and pick out a prospective partner at first sight.

Sagittarius, born November 23~December 21

Mythology:
The sign Sagittarius is symbolized by the Archer, element is Fire, ruled by planet Jupiter. You have a lot energy and are very optimistic. You will overlook details so that the overall picture can be considered. You are warm and friendly. You like to talk a great deal making it difficult for others to get a word in edgewise. You love to travel. You are adaptable, tolerant, philosophical, knowledgeable, honest, out-spoken. Like Gemini, this is a dual sign and a love of change and variety is felt. You are also constructive, clear-sighted, generous, cheerful, loyal and independent.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be rebellious, hasty, hypo-critical, too outspoken, lustful and intolerant, and can lack concentration.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is lively, lusty and adventurous. You love to break new ground, in sexual encounters as in everything else and you are quite willing to go for what you want. Ruled by Jupiter, the grand leader of the gods, you are expansive and all-encompassing in your tastes and interests. You are uninhibited, ready to make love on impulse and not impressed with delaying tactics, or feeble, wimpy attempts to win your favour.

Capricorn, born December 22~January 19

Mythology:
The sign Capricorn is symbolized by the Sea Goat, element is Earth, ruled by planet Saturn. You are honest, thorough, practical, ambitious, business-like and careful. You can be cold and aloof. You are determined, dependable, responsible, and may be interested in collecting antiques. You are very often politically minded. You have an excellent sense of timing. You are also patient, reserved, cautious, faithful and shrewd. You possess a great deal of drive, and your sense of duty is very strong. You can be very suspicious at times.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be unfeeling, gloomy, pessimistic, miserly, unyielding, self-centered, and revengeful.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is powerful and always thrumming just below the surface. Unfortunately, in your youth you tend to allow others to take the initiative, though this changes as you get older and become more self-confident. Your insecurities can hold you back, though you have inner strength and a load of ambition. Ruled by Saturn, the god of karma and restraint, you may be frustrated in the pursuit of your desires, yet have the ability to keep pushing out the envelope until you finally achieve your goal.

Aquarius, born January 20~February 19

Mythology:
The sign Aquarius is symbolized by the Water Carrier, element is Air, ruled by planet Uranus. You like time saving devices and enjoy reading. You are modern, progressive, diplomatic, and humanitarian. Independence and a feeling of freedom is necessary. You have a strong will, and is original, inventive, and will always enjoy doing the unexpected. You are creative, scientific, quick, unconventional, friendly and enjoy groups of people or belonging to club as well. You are intellectual, faithful, and intuitive, with an ability to "see through people". You may lead a bohemian or hippie lifestyle.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be self-centered, nervous and high strung, erratic, opinionated, impractical.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is steady, yet unorthodox. You are experimental and love the unorthodox and the unusual in sexual encounters, which you often undergo, for you are not afraid to follow your desires. Ruled by Uranus, the unconventional god of the sky, you always aim high and wild, although your co-ruler, Saturn, the god of karma and restriction, usually keeps your feet firmly on the ground.

Pisces, born February 20~March 20

Mythology:
The sign Pisces is symbolized by the Fish, element is Water, ruled by planet Neptune. You are emotional, ultra-sensitive, easy going, self sacrificing, sympathetic, understanding, and sociable. You are an excellent host or hostess. You may find it hard to make decisions because you see all sides to the question. Worry plagues you. You are merciful, obliging, charitable, artistic, with a good sense of colour. You will see only the good in others.

Possible negative aspects:
You can be lazy, self-centered, pulled in two directions, a procrastinator, and a day dreamer. You have "weird" experiences, and is often confused, may be.

Sexuality:
Your sexuality is fantasy-driven and dynamite when stoked by the right mixture of wish-fulfilment, appropriate environment and emotional stimulation (not to mention drugs and alcohol!). You tend to idealise your partner, often mistaking your responses to archetypal pattern-fixations for the genuine article. This is astro-babble for the fact that you allow your imaginative emotions to cloud your judgement when it comes to sexual attraction. You are deeply intuitive and sympathetic, but can be easily deceived by those who fit your fantasy patterns.

(The author wishes to apologize, in case you think that there are some sectors inappropriate in the above post.)

(Sources: Astrology on the Web and Regina Russel`s Psychic Reading)

"Love is Sacrifice"

2008-11-28T13:34:00.012+09:00

"If you love somebody, let them go, for if they return, they were always yours. And if they don`t they never were."

Kahlil GIBRAN

There are many quotations on love given by many philosophers, scholars, and people with different ways of stating their perspective. I think all of those quotations are logical, rational and worthwhile considering. Among those, I would like to pick up/raise one quotation on love of Kahlil GIBRAN`s to introduce and explain why I decided to single out that quotation.

From the quotation, there are many possible ways of interpretation, it depends on many variables, what you base on and focus about. According to Kahlil, I think what we can learn from him is that "Love is sacrifice".

I mean, if you love a girl (she loved you too) but unfortunately a third person just showed up from out of nowhere and they fell with each other. And she wants to go to him, leaves you all alone. What would you do then? Indeed, if you love somebody you do not want to let her go away from you, but because of the power of love, you will respect her decision and give her freedom to choose who she really loves (my assumption).

For me, if I can make sure that that is what she wants and she will lead a happy life, it is okay because that is everything I want. Even how much it hurts to let her go, I just want her to know that "If you are happy that is enough for me. And I just want you to know that, I will be here for you and when you want to come back, you are welcomed. I love you and will always do." (I tried to feel Kahlil`s feeling when this idea came up to his mind)

Nobody wants to say "Goodbye" to the only one person they love, and no one wants it to happen either. You know what just try to think of Kahlil`s feeling from his quotation, I can feel it in my bone, I can feel how hard it is to face that kind of a situation. Hoping that it neither happens to me and nor to you.

By the way, after considering and interpreting about that concept of love, I can imagine that it is so hard for everybody to say "Goodbye". To me, if a couple/boyfriend and girlfriend, they are in love, I will let them be. I do not want to be the second guy, because of me someone could get hurt, so you know what I mean, I guess.

Moreover, if she is not available (SBU: single but unavailable), I will try to avoid falling in love with her. Sometimes, I believe we can control our minds, because we love the one we know so we must be able to know that we will fall in love with her if.....(based on how you feel about her comparing to other girls and love is the fruit/result of friendship/good relationship, some cases).

So if she has somebody, let her be and when you hear the bell warning that it is a "dangerous zone" (you are falling right now), get your ears checked and take action asap. Staying a little bit farther from her is one suggestion and it could help sometimes.

Last but not least, "Love is Sacrifice", we can say that based on Kahlil GIBRAN`s quotation. His idea is impressive - and very interesting. Saying goodbye is always painful for everybody. If you are sentimental, saying goodbye is heart-wrenching.

May a successful true-love be with you !!!

Adam SMIK

Quotations on Love!

2008-11-26T17:56:00.026+09:00

"There are many girls that I can live with, but you are the only one girl that I cannot live without. I love you and will always do. You are always beautiful in my heart."

Adam smiK

Love one another and you will be happy. It`s as simple and as difficult as that.

Michael Leunig

You don`t love a woman because she is beautiful, but she is beautiful because you love her.

Anonymous

Everyone admits that love is wonderful and necessary, yet no one agrees on just what it is.

Diane Ackerman

Love is much like a wild rose, beautiful and calm, but willing to draw blood in its defense.

Mark Overby

Love is like pi -- natural, irrational, and very important.

Lisa Hoffman

Immature love says: "I love you because I need you." Mature love says: "I need you because I love you."

Erich Fromm

If you love somebody, let them go, for if they return, they were always yours. And if they don`t, they never were.

Kahil Gibran

The sweetest joy, the wildest woe is love.

Pearl Bailey

Love doesn`t make the world go around. Love is what makes the ride worthwhile.

Franklin P. Jones

At the touch of love, everyone becomes a poet.

Plato

Love is a friendship set to music.

E. Joseph Cossman

True love come quietly, without banners or flashing lights. If you hear bells, get your ears checked.

Erich Segal

You don`t marry someone you can live with - you marry the person who you cannot live without.

Anonymous

The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched - they must be felt with the heart.

Hellen Keller

There is no remedy for love, everybody knows, but to love more.

Thoreau

Some love lasts a lifetime. True love lasts forever.

Anonymous

A friend is someone who knows all about you, and loves you just the same.

Proverb

I met in the street a very poor young man who was in love. His hat was old, his coat was worn, his cloak was out at the elbows, the water passed through his shoes -- and the stars through his soul.

Victor Hugo

"When I look into your eyes and you`re looking back into mine, everything feels not quite normal. Because I feel stronger and weaker at the same time. I feel excited and at the same time terrified .... It`s as if I`ve reached the unreachable and I wasn`t ready for it."

Peter Parker/Spider-man

"There`s something I`ve been wanting to tell you .... There was only one person who I was thinking of, and it was you. Who makes me feel like I`m more than I ever thought I could be. That I`m just...me, and that`s okay. The truth is...I love you."

Mary Jane Watson

(Sources: Joseph and various sources)

Interesting? .....Hell yeah!

2008-11-25T20:53:00.026+09:00

"You flirt a girl because you are attracted to her, maybe, and want to win her heart/love. But whether you are quite sure that you love her and will be able to make her happy is what you should question yourself in advance."

AsmiK

How girls flirt:

She calls you by your full name not just by a nick name (it depends anyway).
She hits you softly on the arm and laughs when you say something funny.
She flips her hair while talking to you.
She touches your arm when she talks to you.
She says, "No, I`m not telling you who I like!" with a big smile on her face.
She comes so close to you when she talks, sometimes you cannot stay still (maintain your position) and just move back/retreat.
She asks you who you like or who you would go out with seemingly interested.
When you go to the movies with friends or hang out with a group of friends, she is almost always next to you.
She criticizes you on a girl you like.
You catch her staring at you.
She plays with your hair or tries to put make up on you.
Her friends inside and outside of school know about you, and say she talks a lot about you.
She knows your phone number and address (It is not abnormal, though).
She will try to talk, and spend time with you as mush as possible.

How guys flirt:

He looks at you a lot, and sometimes he looks straight into your eyes.
He always tries to make a chance to talk to you and spend time to be next to you.
You are invited so many times by him to a group hang-out.
He uses every possible ways to touch you, your hair, face, arm,...etc.
He like teasing you among a group of friends (never means to hurt you, though), but when he talks to you personally, he is serious like a grown-up guy, actually he is.
His voice gets softer whenever the two of you talk.
He uses the first thing that pops into his head to start a conversation with you.
He admires you (saying you are lovely, beautiful,...etc.) and tries to tell you how he feels about you indirectly.
He pays attention to what you talk, what you do, and your surrounding (to make sure that you are safe).
He remembers things about you, even little things you mention in casual conversation.
He tries to make you laugh anyway even if he gets hurt in the process.
He imitates your laugh. OK, you do laugh PRETTY LOUD, which makes you laugh even louder.....
He calls you to talk about nothing at all, sometimes.
You hung up on him. He called you back.
Sometimes you think you meet him by chance, but actually it is by chance with calculation (if he is good at math).
when he sees you in the campus, he smiles and says "Hi....., okay see you then."

(Sources: Wert and various sources)

Bowling Freak !!

2008-11-23T14:15:00.006+09:00

"Going bowling is not just to go to play a game, the truth is.......to go to be with you and spend the night.....together."

Adams

Bowling is an indoor game in which you roll a large heavy ball along a wooden track in order to knock down a group of pins (10 pins). The maximum score is 300 (perfect play, getting strike every time you throw a ball). For me I like doing sports in my free time, and right now, I like "Bowling" the most. I think I am a bowling freak, I really love to go bowling. Some friends said: "Adams, you go bowling so often, why it is so attractive like that?"

I acknowledge that it is true. You know what, if somebody asked me to go bowling, I would never say no if I was not so busy. I think maybe I can go bowling every weeks. Sometimes, when there is nobody initiates or organizes a bowling gathering, I am the one to do it.

The main reasons are, indeed I want to get a higher average, the average of 170 (my best average), and set a new record of 204. But it is not just like that, the more important one is to go to be with friends, nothing is happier than being with friends and have fun if we have free time. We can get to know more and more about each other, strengthen and maintain our relationship, and refresh our feelings during or after a stressful situation/a hard day of work. Meanwhile, there are many other incentives for us to go bowling.

I am not a professional, but I want to play like a professional, or even.......better.

Let`s go bowling together !!!

Adams

"Bowling is an excellent way to gather with a group of friends and have fun. Relaxing, talking, kidding and teasing among a large group of friends is one of the best past times in the world!"

Joseph